Key Takeaways
- Many shoppers think the deals are fake, and it was the most common verdict on Black Friday (46 mentions). They say prices go up in October and come back down in November, and only 2 comments defended the deals as real
- People still buy, but mostly things they had already planned. 30 mentions said Black Friday is still useful for that, and in the "what did you buy" threads, restocks and boring essentials came first
- In the weeks before, people check more than they wait. Tracking the price history was the most common behaviour (34 mentions), and 21 people said a price adjustment let them buy early without losing the deal
- Fine print costs the most trust. "Up to" offers, "sitewide" sales with exclusions and deal items that sold out came up 14 times, never in a good way. Bundles and gift sets were liked 11 times to 3
- People react to the same 20% off in opposite ways, depending on the brand. From a brand that is always on sale, they say "don't even bother", but from a brand that rarely discounts, they say they wait all year for it
Black Friday is seven weeks away as I write this, and most DTC brands and agencies are planning their offer right now. So I wanted to know what shoppers actually think when they see that offer. Do they believe it? Do they wait for it, or buy before it? And which kinds of offers make them roll their eyes?
The short answer: many shoppers don't believe Black Friday prices any more, and the offers that work are the ones they can check.
We analyzed 8,000 comments from 345 Black Friday discussions. In a random sample, the most common verdict was that Black Friday deals are fake (about 31% of mentions), and only 2 comments defended them. Before the sale, people mostly tracked prices (22%) or waited (20%), and 21 said a price adjustment let them buy early. Offers with fine print ("up to", exclusions, sold-out items) drew 14 complaints and no praise.
About this study
- Corpus
- 8,000 public comments from 345 hand-picked Black Friday discussions in 192 communities. We gathered 9,274 comments and kept the first 8,000. We read about 1,400 of them, taken at random from keyword searches for each theme, and sorted them by hand. About 600 said something we could count
- Communities
- Fashion and menswear forums, beauty, skincare and fragrance communities, athleisure and apparel brand fan groups, frugal-living and anti-consumption groups, buy-it-for-life and home communities, tech and PC-building forums, UK and European shopping discussions, and a few ecommerce and email marketing forums
- Themes coded
- What people think of Black Friday now, the weeks before the sale, which offers people believe, what people actually buy, the inbox in November, and brands that rarely discount
- Analysis
- We sorted each comment into themes by hand, and one comment can fit more than one theme. So the percentages in each section only describe that section and do not add up to 100. Treat them as rough guides rather than exact measurements.
- Quotes
- Word for word, with only broken characters fixed. The wording, spelling and typos are the commenter's own.
Some things you should know about how this was collected. The first searches mostly brought back threads asking whether to buy a laptop or a console now or wait. So electronics are louder here than they would be among a DTC brand's own customers. I kept some of them for the section on the weeks before the sale, since the question is the same for leggings as for laptops. Then I added beauty, fashion and fragrance communities to balance it. Also, about 15 comments looked like people promoting their own price-tracking tools, so I didn't quote any of them.
If you read our discount conditioning study, some of this will sound familiar. That study asked whether discounts all year teach people to wait. This one looks at one week of the year and asks which offers people believe once they've decided to shop it.
The research question
What do shoppers think of Black Friday now, which offers do they believe and act on, and how do they behave in the weeks before the sale? The short version: many people assume the prices were raised first, so they check before they buy, and they buy earlier when a store promises to refund the difference. And they give up on offers where the banner promised more than they found in the cart.
1. What people think of Black Friday now
Seven verdicts, ranked by how often people mention themThis section comes from a random sample of 221 comments that judged Black Friday in some way. 134 of them gave a clear verdict, with 150 mentions between them.
46 against 2. Many of these people now start from the idea that the price was raised, and they don't say it vaguely. They describe the exact pattern, with prices and dates, because they watched it happen to something they wanted.
"I've been tracking the price of an Air Fryer / Toaster, it sits at $200 since summer. Difference today was that it was 50% off, priced at $200."
"J. Crew's sale last year I saw a coat for $99 that was raised to $189 for Black Friday and lowered to $110 for the sale. You were literally paying a higher price for buying for the sale."
"I've been watching some dolls for younger family members and they've all been $25+ all year. But now for black Friday they're “marked down” to $25 with the original slashed out price saying “$45”"
"Jacked up all the prices."
But the second line on the list matters more for a brand. One in five mentions says Black Friday still works, as long as you go in with a list and stick to it. These people aren't against the day, they just use it for things they would have bought anyway.
"Buy only things I wanted to buy already. If nothing I wanted is reduced, I buy nothing."
"Basically only excited about things I can get cheaper that I was already going to get anyway. I’ve really started treating BF as a maintenance holiday more than anything."
"I don’t buy absolutely anything until Black Friday. I’m buying when their margins are the most slim. I just bought a year of protein powder for 35% off."
The group that skips Black Friday is smaller and more direct, and many of them say something like this.
"Anything I need a Black Friday sale to be ok buying I don’t need."
Assume your Black Friday price will be checked against your October price, because for many of these shoppers it will be. Don't raise prices in the weeks before. And if your normal price really is your normal price, say so on the page in plain words, like "our everyday price since March". Then the shopper doesn't have to go and check.
2. The weeks before Black Friday
Eight behaviours, ranked by how often people mention themThis section is based on a random sample of 240 comments from the run-up to the sale, where people decide whether to buy now or hold off. 147 described what they did or would do, with 158 mentions.
I expected waiting to come first. It came second, just behind checking: people set price alerts, look up the price history or remember what an item cost in the summer, and only then decide. 119 comments name a price-history site or a price alert they use.
"I had been watching the prices on a few things I had been wanting. Most things I was watching went on "sale" for the same price they had been the last few months but one thing I actually saved about 100 dollars on. Just a matter of research."
"I feel 3/4ths of the deals aren't so great. This is where it comes down to knowing what things cost and in waiting patiently to buy."
The other thing people use is the store's price adjustment policy, which means getting the difference back if the price drops after you buy. 136 comments mention price adjustments, price matching or a price-drop guarantee. In the sample, 21 people said a store refunded the difference and 11 said it refused or made it hard. When it works, people stop waiting and buy.
"FYI they price adjust if you need. I ordered the wax canvas barn jacket last week. After seeing this, I forwarded the order confirmation email to them and they price adjusted within a few hours to the new sale price and I got refunded the difference. 10/10 customer service"
"they said that they will price match if there is a lower sale price as long as its from an authorized reseller and within 30 days of my purchase so I ended up ordering my tablet LOL"
"See if there’s a price drop guarantee. Best Buy Canada said if you see a better price in the next 60 days then they will refund you the difference."
People remember the refusals just as clearly. Nearly always they're about a rule the shopper didn't know: tags still attached, full price only, or "return it and buy it again".
"Basically they will only do price adjustments if you bought the item at full price"
"they gave me a price adjustment similar situation last year on satin cargo pants. this year they refused on a linen blazer."
Then there are the price rises. 17 mentions describe a price going up in October or early November, and these are the stories behind the "fake deals" verdict in section 1.
"You’re not dreaming. $600 to $800 and then they’ll do 25% off"
"I bought boots on sale a month ago for about $90, and I checked a few days ago - they are now around $200."
"The TV I was eyeballing went up 20% 2 weeks ago. I'm expecting to see it discounted to its original price this Friday."
I can't tell from these comments whether people who got a price adjustment came back to that brand more often. My guess is yes (they describe the brand warmly, like the "10/10 customer service" above), but nobody in the sample says it directly.
In the run-up weeks, promise in writing to refund the difference if the price drops before December 1. That gives people who track prices and people who wait a reason to buy now. Make it easy to claim. Replying to the order email should be enough, because the refusals people remember are about tags, store visits and "full price only" rules.
3. Which offers people believe
Offer types, with how often people liked or dismissed each oneThis section is based on a random sample of 260 comments about specific offers, and 115 of them said what they thought of one (127 mentions). The same type of offer gets praise and complaints, so the list shows both counts.
A straight percentage off is still the offer people talk about most, and it splits almost evenly. When people dismiss it, the problem is nearly always the size. They say a discount under a certain number isn't a real Black Friday deal, and that number is high, sometimes 50%.
"What’s with all these 10% and 20% off BF “deals”?! Don’t even bother at that point"
"I kept seeing ads for 15-30% off….thats not a black friday sale!"
"25% off might as well be MSRP at J Crew."
"Anything under 50% percent off IS NOT a deal. Even at 50% can be questionable."
When people like it, the discount is usually from a brand they already buy, and often it's the same offer as last year. They know the product and they know the normal price, so there's nothing to check.
"Stocked up on 2UNDR undies! Same deal they run basically every year at this time - 40% off."
"i always buy an… unreasonable amount when they do extra 50% off. at those prices, it’s basically target pricing but the quality is so much better."
"I got a pair of Tecova Cartwright boots in Desert for $180 with free shipping. Retail for $400."
The second line on the list has no positive mentions at all. Not one. And none of these 14 comments complain that a discount was too small. They complain that the headline promised more than the cart gave them, and they usually find out at checkout.
""Sitewide" Sale my ass. Nothing I planned on buying was on sale haha. Isn't this false advertising?!"
"Don’t get too excited lol the email said “up to 30% off”."
"And the marketing lies about how that 40% off applies to EVERYTHING, which is somehow not the pair of shoes I want to purchase."
"They’ve frequently released new printers right before the BF and anniversary sales, but those new printers are always excluded from the sale."
Bundles and gift sets do well when the saving is shown in dollars. They do badly when only the extra item is discounted.
"I saved a total of $248.50 off the original price of the four full bottles I bought (and by that math the Soleil Blanc oil was FREE) so I’m pretty happy."
"It’s a horrible deal. No discount on the RMPP, just on the bundle. So you get the case for $39 instead of $89."
The smaller offer types mostly fail for one reason: they hide the real cost. Think of a spin-the-wheel discount, a gift card instead of a lower price, or a free gift that suddenly needs a bigger spend. Shoppers see each one as the brand giving less while making it look like more. If you run a free gift, our free samples study found that people see a promised freebie as part of the order, so a missing one feels like a missing item.
"One thing I hate is the discount spinners most of them use."
"They’re bundling in the gift card versus discounting the product."
"They increased the amount of $$ spent to get the free blanket this year so I’m assuming that means they’re decreasing all of the promos as well."
Pick one clear offer and make sure the headline matches what lands in the cart. If best-sellers or new launches are excluded, say it on the banner itself, because shoppers find out at checkout and that's where you lose their trust. A bundle with the saving written in dollars is an easy offer for a small brand, as long as the discount sits on the thing people actually want.
4. What people actually buy
A smaller sample, so these are plain countsIn a random sample of 140 comments from "what are you buying" and haul threads, 43 said what they bought or planned to buy. 11 restocked something they already use, and 8 replaced boring essentials like socks, bras or a worn-out down jacket. 7 bought nothing on purpose. 6 finally bought something they'd wanted for months, while only 4 tried a new product or brand because of the sale (and another 4 regretted an impulse buy).
So for a DTC brand, most Black Friday buying comes from people who already know the product and are stocking up, sometimes for a full year. The new customer who discovers you on Black Friday exists, but in these comments that group is small. Plan the ad budget with that in mind.
"I bought two Stratia Mandelic Acid at 25% off.. two bottles will last me until next BF."
"Just my GM Collin moisturizer. It’s pricey but they normally do a buy one get one half off & it’ll last me till next Black Friday lol"
"I bought myself some bras online. Same brand I currently have, so I know they'll fit. Marked down from $45 to $15. Not very exciting, but necessary."
"Cecred's 30% off, although this is their first BF sale, I've been waiting for months to try it until now"
"Some of the worst purchases I’ve made over the years have been, “not sure I really need or even particularly want this, but it’s 30% off today…”"
"Nothing. Because If I won't pay full price for it, chances are I won't need it at half-off either."
5. The inbox in November
Five reactions, ranked by how often people mention themWe read all 305 comments that mention emails, texts or ads around Black Friday. 87 described how they deal with them, with 96 mentions. Four of those came from email marketers rather than shoppers, so they're left out of the list below.
The top two are tied. And they're often the same people. They unsubscribe from the brands that flood them, and they sign up on purpose to the few they plan to buy from, because that's where the extra code is.
"If there are items I am looking for I subscribe to stores that carry. I unsubscribe after Christmas."
"I did the 31% off and then Signed up for the text messages and was able to stack another 15% off."
Unsubscribing has become close to a yearly tradition. People do it on Black Friday because that's the day every brand they ever bought from writes to them at once.
"I was getting between 60-100 emails a day all marketing stuff. I probably agreed to marketing at the time but it was getting way too much. I missed emails I actually needed."
"It’s like the retailers compiled a nice tidy ‘unsubscribe’ list for me today."
"On November 1 everyone’s inbox is flooded with sale alerts “Black Friday starts NOW.” And then they just hammer it home every day of November."
"they were bombarding me with “SALE SALE SALE” emails, only for me to go on the website and find out that what’s discounted are kits and cosmetic bags 🙄."
That last one connects to section 3: the email promised a sale and the site showed fine print. Our email and SMS unsubscribe study goes deeper on why people leave lists. And if you're rewriting your November emails, this piece on writing emails in your customers' words may help. A few people also mentioned something that annoys them a lot: brands that never email all year and suddenly write on Black Friday.
"I always find it funny whenever you never ever get an email from them previously, until it makes you wonder if they actually believe that's gonna work."
6. Brands that rarely discount, and small shops
Seven themes, ranked by how often people mention themWe read all 211 comments that mention full price, small shops, outlets or brands that never go on sale. 63 shoppers said something we could count, with 64 mentions. Another 9 comments came from people who run a shop, and those are covered separately at the end.
This is where the 20% question from section 3 gets its answer. Shoppers ignore a 20% discount from a big retailer, but they take it seriously from a brand that almost never runs one, and some wait all year for it.
"This is the only time of the year when they offer anything on sale."
"A lot of the small businesses I buy from do genuinely have good sales on black Friday. Not crazy deals, but 15-20% off when normally they don't have any sales. So often if I'm eyeing something, I'll wait till black Friday."
"I find Black Friday to be more useful for brands and companies that don’t do a lot of sales in general."
"I picked up a Patagonia better sweater and some Red Wing chukkas on Backcountry for 20% off. Admittedly not a massive discount, but I don't see those go on sale too often"
The second line is the other side of this: when a brand is on sale often, people stop believing its full price and wait for the next discount.
"they are a brand I'm much more comfortable buying on sale than full price."
"I refuse paying full price for anything so Black Friday is always a good opportunity for me to stock up on my favourite skincare, clothing or devices."
And 8 mentions say the Black Friday version of a product is worse than the regular one, made cheaper for the sale. Some of this is guesswork, but some comes from people who say they worked at those companies.
"If you admire a brand for its quality material and craftsmanship, it is very likely anything you anything you buy on Black Friday will NOT be that."
"last year's black friday i bought another clothing in a diff color from what i already had (and paid full price for) and the black friday's fabric was completely different"
The 9 seller comments are too few to rank. They also disagree. One says a sale trains customers to wait, another calls Black Friday an invaluable way for an independent shop to find new customers, and one owner explains why a small shop finds it hard to compete at all.
"Cannibalize regular-season sales. Customers will just wait for Black Friday instead of buying anytime during the year."
"As a small business, it's tough to compete with Black Friday deals."
"I've never offered a 30% off code in the 17 years I've been open."
If you rarely discount, Black Friday is the one time a small, honest offer is taken seriously. Then 15 to 20% from you can do more than 40% from a brand that is always on sale. If you discount all year, Black Friday can't fix that, and your customers already know to wait. Either way, don't make cheaper versions just for the sale, because people notice when the fabric is different.
What I'd do with this for a Black Friday plan
If I were planning a small brand's Black Friday this month, I'd start from the fact that the shopper arrives suspicious and checks. So I'd leave prices alone in October and November and show on the page how long the price has stayed the same. I'd also offer to refund the difference if the price drops before the sale ends. That last one is cheap for a brand with honest prices, and it turns a waiting shopper into a buyer in the run-up weeks.
Then one offer, with the exclusions on the banner. Just one. Email the people who buy from you about stocking up, because that's who buys, and send fewer emails to everyone else. Agencies probably see the tension here better than anyone. The client wants a bigger number on the banner, but these comments say a smaller number with no fine print gets more trust.
What I can't answer from this data is whether skipping Black Friday entirely hurts a small brand. Some sellers say any sale trains customers to wait, so they'd skip it. Some shoppers respect brands that never discount, but others wait all year for a brand's one sale, so the comments point both ways. And nobody compares the two choices for the same brand, so I'd want a brand's own sales numbers before telling anyone to opt out. Our piece on pricing research for DTC brands covers how to get that answer, if you want to ask your own customers.
A customer glossary
The words people actually useIf you write Black Friday emails, landing pages or ads, you will hear these words from your customers.
| Term | What people mean | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price history | What an item cost over the last months, checked on a price-tracking site or in a browser extension before buying. The main way shoppers decide if a deal is real. | behaviour |
| Price adjustment | Asking the store to refund the difference when the price drops after you bought. When it works, it's the reason people buy before Black Friday instead of waiting. | benefit |
| Jacked up | Prices raised before the sale so the discount looks bigger. The most common complaint about Black Friday. | complaint |
| "Up to" | Read as a warning sign. Shoppers assume most items get the smallest discount and only a few get the number in the headline. | objection |
| Sitewide | Taken literally. If anything is excluded, shoppers call it false advertising. | objection |
| Black November | Black Friday stretched over the whole month. Mostly used to say the day itself no longer means anything. | category |
| Stock up | Buying a year's supply of something you already use. The most common thing people actually do on Black Friday. | benefit |
| Never goes on sale | Said with respect about a few brands. It makes their one yearly sale an event people plan around. | benefit |
| Made for Black Friday | Cheaper versions of products made just for the sale. Shoppers use it to explain why a deal feels too good. | complaint |
Frequently asked questions
Do shoppers still trust Black Friday deals?
Mostly not by default. In a random sample of comments judging Black Friday, the most common verdict (about 31% of mentions) was that prices are raised first and then cut back down. Only 2 comments defended the deals as real, but about 20% said the day is still useful for things people already planned to buy. Those people usually check the price history first, so they trust the price they checked rather than the banner.
Do shoppers wait for Black Friday or buy earlier?
Both, but checking comes first. In the weeks before the sale, the most common behaviour was tracking an item's price history (about 22% of mentions), then waiting for Black Friday (20%) and buying now (14%). Price adjustments change the decision: 21 people said a store refunded the difference when the price dropped after they bought, and 11 said the store refused or made it hard.
Which Black Friday offers do shoppers trust least?
Offers with fine print. "Up to" discounts, "sitewide" sales with exclusions and deal items that sold out came up 14 times in 115 comments about offers. None of those mentions were positive, while straight percentages off were mixed (35 liked, 27 dismissed), mostly depending on whether the discount looked deep enough for that brand.
Is 20% off a good Black Friday discount?
It depends on the brand more than the number. Shoppers dismissed 10% to 30% off from brands that run sales all year, with lines like "don't even bother" and "that's not a black friday sale". But when a brand almost never discounts, people said they wait all year for its 15% to 20%.
How do shoppers react to Black Friday marketing emails?
Two reactions tie. In 83 shopper comments about Black Friday emails and texts, unsubscribing and using brand emails to get a code each made up about 29% of mentions. Complaints about the volume came next (21%). Many people do both of the first two: they unsubscribe from the brands that flood them and sign up on purpose to the few they plan to buy from.
Want this run for your brand or category?
This is a public sample of how we work. Insightios reads Reddit, Amazon reviews, YouTube, and the communities where your buyers actually talk, then delivers a report with the exact language, objections, and use cases behind your product.
This report looks at what people say in public online discussions. What they say about specific stores, prices, price adjustment policies and how products are made are personal accounts we have not checked. We report them as what customers said rather than as fact. Percentages only describe their own section and should not be compared across sections. They are rough guides from these comments rather than a count of all shoppers, and electronics shoppers are louder here than they would be among most DTC brands' customers.